Abstract

Goran Janev

Future Kosovo Independence and the Consequences for Macedonia

I am argue that Kosovo's independence is only a question of time and then I am examining the immediate consequence of this development for Macedonia's stability. Emergence of the independent Kosovo will without doubt also have an immediate influence for the stability of the wider region.

How the situation will evolve depends mostly on the political appetites of the Albanian political leaders in Kosovo and in Macedonia and it is not exaggeration if we say that the future of the region is determined by their actions.

First I will explain why I hold that Kosovo's independence is inevitable and then I am turning to the likely future developments of the situation in Macedonia.

Undivided will of the Kosovo Albanians (above 95 percents of the Kosovo population) is to remain out of the Yugoslav borders and no force, political or military, might shift their determination. Kosovo independence might be readily accepted in Macedonia. Its independence if not so willingly, but inevitably, will be recognized by the wider international community too.

For Macedonia this outcome brings only a prosperity and improved internal stability, because of the regained trust by the Albanians living in Macedonia. What might complicate the matters to the least wanted degree is the continuation of the unrestrained activity of the radical Albanian nationalist, which are well connected and organized across territorial borders. If these elements are determined to unify all Albanians into one state, then their project directly threatens Macedonian fragile ethno-political balance. This might result only with new Balkan war. This time, unlike the previous conflicts in the last decade will be hardly localized and might involve many more states into direct military confrontation, with a further polarization on the global scale.

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